The program is based on the powerful model-free method of time series analysis Caterpillar (another name is SSA - Singular Spectrum Analysis). It combines advantages of other methods with simplicity of visual control aids. The basic Caterpillar-SSA algorithm for analyzing one-dimensional time series consists of transformation of the one-dimensional time series to the trajectory matrix by means of a delay procedure (this gives the name to the whole technique); Singular Value Decomposition of the trajectory matrix; reconstruction of the original time series based on a number of selected eigenvectors. The result of the Caterpillar-SSA processing is a natural decomposition of the time series into several components, which can often be identified as trends, seasonalities and other oscillatory series, or noise components. The method can be naturally extended to forecasting time series and its components, processing multidimensional time series and to change-point detection. The |
